A couple of years ago, around this time of the year, I wrote about the following topic and I feel it’s appropriate to cover it once again. It’s about the upcoming Presidential election that is about 60 days away. It’s important to small business owners to understand the dynamics about what is happening right now. And, what will probably happen over the next couple of months. Let me start by giving you some background on my basis of knowledge regarding this subject. Here’s an excerpt from my column back in late 2022.
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Decades ago, I did trade work for a store smack dab in the middle of downtown Nashville, TN. Coles and Waller had a ground floor retail location in a 20+ story office building full of lawyers, corporate offices, and government agencies. The owner’s name was Jim Carter, and he was a third generation owner and had a great business until he decided to retire. Sometime around late September, early October, in the late ‘90s, both of our businesses were very, very slow. He didn’t seem as concerned as I was about it, and I asked him why. He said, “It’s a Presidential election year.”
I didn’t understand what he was talking about, so I just gave him a blank stare and waited for him to explain. He said that every four years, the country has the opportunity to elect a new president. Every four years, the direction of the country can take a hard 180 degree turn, for the good or for the bad. That being said, every four years, about 3-4 months out from the election, the powers-that-be in all aspects of our lives, put a temporary hold on lots of decisions.
He said business expansions, either planned, or in the planning stages, could be cancelled or expanded, depending upon the results of the upcoming election. Hiring could be slowed or expanded, depending upon the results of the upcoming election. Layoffs could be implemented or cancelled, once again, depending upon the outcome of the upcoming election.
I had never thought about the big picture in those terms before, but they’ve made a lot of sense to me ever since. And to think, I thought my business was slow because of record high inflation, skyrocketing grocery bills, and soaring gas prices. Silly me.
As owners, managers, and employees of small businesses, we don’t have the luxury that major corporations have to hedge bets because of the numbers on an Excel spreadsheet, or outcomes of an election might, or might not meet our expectations. Usually, if we plan an expansion, we’re committed to it, regardless of what happens in any upcoming election. If we choose to hire additional staff, we’re doing it because we need additional staff now, not in 60-90 days, and not depending upon outcomes we have no control over. And worse, if the political winds shift away from what we were hoping for, we’re still forced to commit to those plans.
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In 2024, the October surprise is going to be interesting since the big surprise already took place back in July when one of the two major parties swapped out their candidate. I don’t know if that’s ever happened before in our history, but I know it’s never happened before in my lifetime.
The mainstream media, as usual, are spinning up stories to try and sway your opinion to what they want you to believe. Are their facts correct? No. It doesn’t even matter what facts they are pushing, I just assume they are made up, especially at this juncture in the campaign season. One network says one thing is true, and another network says the exact opposite is true. Who are you to believe?
Our national media used to be anti-government. Now, they’re pro-government, and wouldn’t tell you the honest truth if their life depended on it. But, how does any of this apply to you and your business?
Customers right now are nervous. A big chunk of retail consumers in America work for large companies and corporations. Their jobs, paychecks, and livelihoods are at the whim of those companies and corporations. To those companies, their employees (your customers), are just numbers on a spreadsheet. To us small business owners, those customers are our friends. They are also the source of our jobs, paychecks, and livelihoods.
In corporate boardrooms, all across America, ‘C-suite’ executives are staring at spreadsheets right now. If the election goes one way, they add numbers to the spreadsheet. If it goes the other way, they take numbers off of the spreadsheet. Those ‘numbers’ that they are adding or subtracting are our customers!
If a corporation likes the results of the upcoming election, then they will go ahead and expand production and add jobs. The employees that work there will breathe a sigh of relief because their job is safe. It’s also safe for them to go ahead and buy that special anniversary present – from you!
If the corporation doesn’t like the results of the upcoming election, then they could possibly ship production overseas and shut down the plant entirely. The employees that work there will not breathe a sigh of relief because they just lost their job. It is no longer a safe move to buy that special anniversary present – from you!
One thing is for certain though; none of those decisions are being implemented now. Everything is on hold until after the results of the election are known. Executives all over America right now are in a ‘wait and see’ condition. This is not a new phenomenon that just started during this election cycle. I’ve known about it, and have studied it for decades as a business owner. Every four years I just kind of prepare for it.
I expect that things are going to be a little unpredictable at the retail level for the next couple of months, so I tend to be a little more frugal than normal. If your customers’ livelihoods can be affected by the results of the upcoming election, then it makes sense for them to cut back on their spending right now for non-essential luxury items, like jewelry. Since our paychecks depend on their paychecks, we get caught in the same cycle that they get caught in.
The Presidential election, every four years, doesn’t affect everyone’s livelihoods, but it affects enough of our customer base that we will all feel it for the next couple of months. So, what’s ahead for all of us? I have no idea.
Just turn on the nightly news and you’ll find out that this country, that we all know and love, will be lost forever if candidate A wins. Change the channel and you’ll find out that this country, that we all know and love, will be lost forever if candidate B wins. This sounds exactly like what the mainstream media were saying in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2008, 2004, and 2000. Yet here we all are, still standing strong.
My point is this; tighten your belt, pull up your bootstraps, and put on a sturdy helmet. It’s probably going to be a bumpy ride through the end of the year. Oh yeah, and in the middle of all of that, don’t forget to gear up for the biggest event in our industry, the Christmas season!
Good luck navigating the fourth quarter this year. In January, let’s all get together for a beer and compare horror stories about how we survived the same thing our country has been surviving for 248 years.
Like I said, Buckle Up!
