Key Takeaways:
• Trends follow cyclical patterns where the underlying consumer motivations remain the same even as specific products change over time.
• Preparation and momentum must be built long before a trend peaks; by the time a trend is obvious, it is often too late to capitalize on it.
• Strategic “”letting go”” is essential, as focusing on opportunities that align with your specific trajectory is more effective than chasing every popular fad.
Right off the bat, I’m not a good surfer—quite the contrary, I consider myself excellent at wiping out. There’s a certain grace and style to the fine art of getting tossed by waves.
Most people who haven’t tried it have a misconceived notion about surfing—just riding tubes, getting pitted, and going “Cowabunga, dude!” But those awesome, idyllic rides are just what shows up in the sizzle reel. The reality is that surfing consists mostly of paddling against the current and sitting behind the break, waiting for the right wave. A lot of waiting.
In order to catch a wave, you need to be in the right place, at the right time, with the right momentum. Easier said than done, but it can be approached like this:
Look back to move forward
Analyze the patterns. To ride a wave forward, you must anticipate it, and the way to do that is to turn around and look back to where it’s coming from. The little swells that don’t seem like much on the horizon might become the ride of your life if you identify them early enough and adjust your position.
Funny enough, trends work the same way. They follow patterns. The trend itself won’t repeat, but the conditions that create it do—every couple of years. Think “pocket companions” for school-aged kids: Tamagotchi in the ’90s, Pokémon in the 2000s, Squishmallows more recently, and now Labubus. The “what” changed, but the “why” stayed the same.
Placement, placement, placement
A surf spot is just a place known for having really good waves. It’s reliable because the conditions consistently generate rideable swells. But that also means it’s crowded, and you’ll be competing with other surfers for a chance to ride.
The same applies to trends. What’s most popular isn’t always the easiest to execute. You might have what’s in demand, but high demand is usually followed by oversupply. And when everyone offers the same thing, the main differentiator becomes cost. You can surf where everybody else is, but the competition will be stiff. Sometimes the better move is to find your own spot, even if it’s less consistent.
Preparation
Even if you can read and anticipate the waves, you still need the momentum to meet them. That means being able to paddle and actually ride the thing—meeting it right when it’s ready to break. Strength, stamina, and balance don’t show up overnight; they’re built ahead of time.
Same thing with trends. You might not have the “trendy silver bullet” right now, but you should always be preparing for it. Maintain your customer lists well ahead of the buying season. Build a following. Create expectation. Nurture hype. So when the moment comes, you’re not scrambling—you’re ready.
Letting go
As perfect as a wave might look, not all of them are meant for you. You might be too late and it passes right under you. Too early, and it crashes on your back. Or maybe you just don’t have the right position or momentum. And that’s fine.
That might be the biggest lesson the ocean teaches you. You don’t need to chase every wave—or every trend. Someone else might be better positioned to ride it. And by letting those go, you save your energy for the one that actually fits you. Opportunity cost can be more expensive than a missed opportunity. Not every fad needs to be followed—if it doesn’t align with your trajectory, let someone else ride it.
Even with all that, you might still end a session without a single ride. And again—that’s fine. Riding is just the payoff. The real meat and potatoes is everything else: the paddling, the waiting, the wipeouts.
That’s the part that builds everything—timing, positioning, judgment.
Most people only pay attention to the ride.But the truth is simple:
by the time you see the wave, it’s already too late to prepare for it.
